September 24th, 2008

Well, this is far from scientific, but ... indulge me :)

For as long as I have been paying attention, there have been economic doom-prophets. Even in the "good" times when everything was ascendant, there was a small contingent telling us that the sky was either falling or would soon be.

At first I panicked regularly, then I learned to take it all with a grain of salt. But one cannot completely ignore them, because a fever pitch was reached in the negativity before both semi-serious crashes that I was a sentient adult for: 1987 (and its 1988-9 echo) and the somewhat smaller one of 1999. I know there have been others, and much worse too, but these two are personal.

And these two were obvious: They came down Main street like a parade: The signs were unmistakable, and nobody was surprised except I think in 1987 people didn't expect it to be so deep and long-term. (Actually, I think that was true in 1982 as well.)

Well, after listening to several of my friends, and after reading the news online and hearing it on TV, I can see we are poised for another—and potentially much much worse—disaster ... positively perched on the precipice. It's also a feeling in my bones: The faces of the commentators carry an "I'm not blowing smoke this time" look that they haven't had before, and the way that the news covers it quickly and then almost laughs nervously before moving on to election coverage, etc. also speaks volumes.

I thank my lucky stars that I carry only one debt (though it's a big one: mortgage). No debt with credit cards or car loans, etc. right now makes me feel a lot better about weathering what could be the worst economic storm of my lifetime. This "feels" worse than the financial carnage my father described to me from the 1972-3 mess he went through, and that was another end-of-a-messy-war overspent, overextended US Government who nevertheless was still the biggest boy on the block. BRIC shows us that the US is no longer the schoolyard bully; it's lost its footing, though it's still on the hook for the responsibilities of a world-leader. In metaphorical terms, Atlas has osteoporosis.

I think we are Screwed with a capital S and about the only thing I hope for is to keep myself (and family) afloat. I'm as community-minded as the next guy, but I feel the cold winds of "every man for himself" blowing through my bedroom.

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